EFFECT OF ANNUAL TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL VARIABILITY ON CEREALS YIELD IN NIGER STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

Globally, temperature and rainfall variability are part of the greatest socioeconomic and biophysical challenges confronting the world in the 21st century. One of the major limitations to cereals yields in Nigeria can be attributed to temperature and rainfall variability. Hence, this study assessed the effect of annual temperature and rainfall variability on cereals yield in Niger State, Nigeria. The study examined the trends in temperature, rainfall, maize and rice yield for 30 years. The study adopted expost-facto research design. Purposive sampling technique was employed to select Badeggi from Katcha LGA in Zone A, Paiko was selected in Paikoro LGA in Zone B and Wushishi from Wushishi LGA in Zone C based on the predominance of maize and rice production and concentration of smallholder farmers. Secondary data were used in this study which were temperature, rainfall, maize and rice yields obtained from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and Niger State Ministry of Agriculture for a period of 30years (1995 to 2024). Data were analysed using Mann-Kendall, trend chart, multiple regression, frequency and percentage. The study shows that the p-value (0.003) is less than the significant level (0.05) alpha level, implying a significant variability in the average temperature trend in the study area with a 34.26 percent increase trend of average annual temperature The study also showed that p-value (0.735) is greater than the significant level (0.05) alpha level, implying no significant variability in the average annual rainfall trend in the study area. The study also shows that p-value (0.382) is greater than the significant level (0.05) alpha level implying no significant variability in the average annual maize yield trend in the study area. Another finding of the study also show that p-value (0.061) is greater than the significant level (0.05) alpha level implying no significant variability in the average annual rice yield trend in the study area. It was recommended among others that with the fluctuating rainfall pattern government and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) should invest in small-scale and community-based irrigation schemes by digging tube wells and boreholes for cereal farmers.