Techno-Economic Assessment of Green Hydrogen for Industrial Clusters Using Nigeria’s Renewable Resource Mix (Solar + Hydro) — Regional Roadmap

Abstract

This paper presents a techno-economic assessment and regional roadmap for the deployment of green hydrogen production targeted at Nigeria’s industrial clusters by leveraging the country’s complementary renewable resource mix — utility hydropower and distributed utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV). The study develops an integrated modelling framework that co-optimizes (i) renewable supply dispatch (hydro + solar), (ii) electrolyser sizing and operating strategy, (iii) hydrogen storage and short-distance pipeline distribution, and (iv) demand aggregation across industrial clusters (cement, ammonia, steel/metal processing, refined petrochemicals and heavy transport). A levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) model tailored to Nigerian financial conditions is presented, together with scenario analysis (Solar-Only, Hydro-Only, Solar-Hydro Hybrid) and sensitivity testing against key parameters (electrolyser CAPEX, renewable capacity factor, grid curtailment, water cost, and financing rate). Results show that the hybrid solar–hydro configuration improves electrolyser capacity factor substantially (40–60% vs. 15–35% for solar only), reduces LCOH by 10–25% compared with solar-only baselines, and enables dispatchable hydrogen supply that meets up to 70% of cluster hydrogen demand during the first deployment phase. The paper further proposes a phased regional roadmap (2026–2050) and policy instruments to mobilize public-private investment, local manufacturing, water-use management, and regulatory frameworks for offtake, transport and safety. The study fills a critical gap in Nigeria’s energy planning literature by providing the first cluster-level, hybrid renewable techno-economic model and a practical roadmap for green hydrogen integration into industrial decarbonization strategies.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18085635